A modified exponential model for reported death toll during earthquakes

Reliable earthquake death toll estimate can provide valuable references for disaster relief headquarters and civil administration departments to make arrangement and deployment plan during post-earthquake relief work, thus increasing the efficiency of the relief work to a certain extent. In this study, we acquired the death toll data of Wenchuan earthquake, fitted the data using modified exponential curve and compared the result with that of the exponential function. Experimental verification with Chi-Chi earthquake and Kobe earthquake data shows that the fitted result by modified exponential curve is more satisfactory. The final death toll resulting from future destructive earthquakes can be estimated by the acquired fitting function.