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剪胀-扩散假说、地震预报、与务实型地震预测:纪念阿莫斯·努尔教授暨1975年海城地震50周年

The dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis, earthquake prediction, and operational earthquake forecasting: In memory of Professor Amos Nur on the 50th Anniversary of the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake

  • 摘要: 剪胀指的是材料在经历变形时同时发生的体积增大现象。剪胀理论最初起源于地质力学/土力学领域,用于研究粒状材料(松散沉积物如土壤)的行为。后来,该理论被扩展到研究岩石等脆性材料在受到不同有效应力载荷并开始破裂变形的情况,旨在解释断层剪切滑动之前和期间发生的岩石体积和孔隙压力的变化及其与之相关的地震动力学过程,因此得名剪胀-流体扩散假说(简称剪胀-扩散假说,见Nur, 1972, 1974, 1975)。剪胀-扩散假说是经典定义的“地震预报”概念中理解发震过程的主要理论支柱。在检验这一假说的初始阶段,剪胀-扩散假说成功地解释了几个小地震的发生(Aggarwal et al, 1973; Whitcomb et al,1973)。而海城地震是世界上第一个利用剪胀-扩散假说进行孕育过程解释的重要地震事件。陈运泰等(1979)报导了海城地震前震源区重力值的下降;段星北等(1976),冯锐等(1976)报导了震前P-波速度及Vp/Vs的下降,雷兴林等(2023)揭示了孕震断层孔隙流体在主震前震时的运移扩散。尽管这些研究结果都是在震后总结发表的,但这些现象都是剪胀-扩散假说进行孕育过程解释的重要标志。作为提出地震孕育过程中剪胀-扩散假说的关键人物之一,斯坦福大学的阿莫斯·努尔教授(Amos Nur, 1938-2024)在地震预报研究这一重要科学领域与人文关怀付出了他毕生的不懈努力。1975年海城地震的预报实践使努尔教授及同一时代的地震学者受到了极大的鼓舞(Adams, 1976)。但是,作为一个确定性的物理模型,剪胀-扩散假说在解释随机的发震过程方面肯定存在先天不足。仅隔一年,1976年唐山地震的发生与预报实践迫使地震学者对剪胀-扩散假说必须持有更加审慎的态度。随着人工智能(AI)深度学习的兴起及其在许多科学技术领域的成功应用,我们可能会看到克服当前地震预测理论缺陷的可能性。随着地震预测实践经验统计数据的持续增加,将具有确定性物理基础的剪胀-扩散假说作为内嵌物理关系之一,使用物理信息神经网络(PINN)作为深度学习的载体,有望推动务实型地震预测(OEF)方法向纵深发展,从而将地震风险评估,管理与减灾提升到一个新的水平,以拯救人类生命并减少经济损失。

     

    Abstract: Dilatancy is referred to the phenomenon of volume increase that occurs when a material is deformed. Dilatancy theory originated in geomechanics for the study of the behavior of granular materials. Later it is expanded to the case of more brittle materials like rocks when it is subjected to the load of varying effective stress and starts to crack and deform, then named the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis. This hypothesis was developed to explain the changes in rock volume and pore pressure that occur prior to and during fault slip, which can influence earthquake dynamics. Dilatancy-fluid diffusion is a significant concept in understanding the seismogenic process and has served as the major theoretical pillar for earthquake prediction by its classic definition. This paper starts with the recount of fundamental laboratory experiments on granular materials and rocks, then conducts review and examination of the history for using the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis to interpret the ‘prediction’ of the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake and other events. The Haicheng Earthquake is the first significant event to be interpreted with the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis in the world. As one pivotal figure in the development of the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis for earthquake prediction Professor Amos Nur of Stanford University worked tirelessly to attract societal attention to this important scientific and humanistic issue. As a deterministic physical model the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis intrinsically bears the deficit to interpret the stochastic seismogenic process. With the emergence of deep learning and its successful applications to many science and technology fields, we may see a possibility to overcome the shortcoming of the current state of the theory with the addition of empirical statistics to push the operational earthquake forecasting approach with the addition of the physically-informed neural networks which adopt the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis as one of its embedded physical relations, to uplift the seismic risk reduction to a new level for saving lives and reducing the losses.

     

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