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历史地震对2022年泸定MS6.8地震的黏弹性库仑应力影响及其邻近断层的静态应力触发效应

Viscoelastic Coulomb stress from historical earthquakes on the 2022 Luding MS6.8 earthquake and its static stress triggering on neighboring faults

  • 摘要: 2022年9月5日,四川省泸定县发生MS6.8级地震,震中位于鲜水河断裂带磨西段附近。该区域地震活动频繁,周边历史上多次发生强震。本文系统分析了自1923年以来区域内主要历史地震对泸定地震的黏弹性库仑应力演化影响,并进一步评估了泸定地震对邻近断层的静态应力触发作用。研究采用分层Maxwell黏弹性介质模型,结合历史地震破裂参数,计算其对泸定地震发震断层的库仑应力变化。结果表明,历史地震总体上使泸定地震提前约29年发生。其中,1923年仁达MS7.3地震、1933年叠溪MS7.5地震、1973年炉霍MS7.3地震、2008年汶川MS8.0地震及2014年康定MS6.3地震等均产生了正的黏弹性库伦应力加载,对泸定地震的触发作用显著;而1936年马边振群、1948年理塘MS7.3地震、1955年康定MS7.5地震和2013年芦山MS7.0地震则产生了负的黏弹性库伦应力加载。此外,本文基于弹性半空间位错理论与泸定地震破裂模型,计算了其同震库仑应力变化特征。结果显示,泸定地震增加了鲜水河断裂(除其南段)、安宁河断裂、则木河断裂、大凉山断裂、龙门山断裂南段、马边-盐津断裂北段及小金河断裂的应力水平,提示这些断裂段未来地震风险有所升高;而鲜水河断裂南段、金沙江断裂南段及龙日坝断裂部分区段则出现应力减小现象。本文还验证了采用震源机制中心解进行应力计算的可靠性,尽管断层几何参数存在一定不确定性,但所得结论与区域历史地震序列及震后应力演化规律高度一致。研究结果揭示了强震间的复杂相互作用机制,对理解川西地区地震活动模式、评估邻近断层未来地震危险性具有重要参考价值。

     

    Abstract: We investigated the influence of historical earthquakes on the 2022 Luding MS6.8 earthquake and its subsequent effects. We computed the viscoelastic Coulomb stress changes induced by these historical seismic events using the rupture model of historical earthquakes and the layered Maxwell viscoelastic medium model. Our findings indicate that the Luding earthquake was brought forward approximately 29 years because of several historical earthquakes. Specifically, the 1923 Renda MS7.3 earthquake, the 1933 Diexi MS7.5 earthquake, the 1973 Luhuo MS7.3 earthquake, the 2008 Kangding MS5.1 earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake, the 2014 Kangding MS6.3 earthquake, and the 2014 Kangding MS5.8 earthquake advanced the occurrence of the event by 117.61, 26.67, 84.51, 0.27, 0.91, 7.64, and 3.17 years, respectively. Conversely, the 1936 Mabian earthquake swarm, the 1948 Litang MS7.3 earthquake, the 1955 Kangding MS7.5 earthquake, and the 2013 Lushan MS7.0 earthquake delayed its occurrence by 39.89, 22.43, 144.23, and 4.89 years, respectively. Furthermore, by employing the half-space homogeneous elastic model and the rupture characteristics of the Luding earthquake, we computed the coseismic Coulomb stress changes in neighboring faults. Our results reveal increased Coulomb stress on the Xianshuihe fault (excluding its southern segment), the Anninghe fault, the Zemuhe fault, the Daliangshan fault, the southern segment of the Longmenshan fault, the northern segment of the Mabian-Yanjin fault, and the Xiaojinhe fault. Conversely, we observed stress decreases in the southern segment of the Jinshajiang fault, the central and eastern segments of the Longriba fault, the Mabian-Yanjin fault (excluding its northern segment), and the southern segment of the Xianshuihe fault.

     

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