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大震前是否存在地壳形变加速现象——以中国强震为例

Is there accelerated crustal deformation before large earthquakes? A case study of strong intra-plate earthquakes in China

  • 摘要: 检测和处理大地测量信号是预报地震的主要方式,检测震前滑动来预报地震一直是研究者关注的问题。最近的一项对GPS信号的研究表明在大地震发生前有能够观测到可以被解释为形变加速的信号,然而其他研究者在对倾斜仪信号处理后却没有出现预期的结果。在对中国境内2010年后的板内强震进行处理和叠加后发现结果并非如此。我们对结果的分析表明这一现象的出现可能和地震的一些特性相关,同时数据的某些特征对最终结果也有一定的影响。基于对地震前记录信号的分析,进一步揭示了地震信号和发生地震之间的因果关系。

     

    Abstract: The existence of a detectable precursory phase of fault slip preceding major earthquakes has been a subject of ongoing debate for decades. A recent study (Bletery and Nocquet, 2023) demonstrated exponential acceleration of fault slip prior to large earthquakes. Conversely, (Hirose et al., 2024) reported no such phenomenon when analyzing tiltmeter data. Furthermore, their analysis focused predominantly on subduction zone earthquakes, with limited consideration of intraplate earthquake scenarios. In this study, we examined 15 M≥6.5 intraplate earthquakes in China from 2010 to 2024 and found no clear evidence of deformation acceleration prior to these events. We also investigated several key factors contributing to uncertainties in this approach. Our findings suggest that the exponential acceleration phenomenon is associated with specific earthquake characteristics and is influenced by the spatial distribution of proximal seismic signals.

     

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